Text: Ren Zeping Xiong Chai Zhou Zhe of Evergrande Research Institute.

　　Intern Zhou Xinyi and others contributed to this article.

　　guide reading

　　In July 2018, Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party put forward the requirement of "six stabilities" to do a good job in economic work, putting "stable employment" in the first place. In 2019, the Government Work Report put the employment priority policy at the macro-policy level for the first time, and asked higher vocational colleges to expand enrollment by 1 million. In May, the the State Council Employment Leading Group was established for the first time, which showed that the central government attached great importance to employment. What is the current employment situation in China?

　　abstract

　　There are limitations or distortions in judging the employment situation only by official unemployment rate and other data. 1) The registered unemployment rate in cities and towns depends on the unemployed taking the initiative to register with the social and social departments, and it is only for the non-agricultural population. The data fluctuates slightly, and it fell to 3.61% at the end of the second quarter of 2019, which is not related to the economic trend. 2) The urban survey unemployment rate was officially announced from the beginning of 2018, and it continued to be higher than 5% in 2019 and 5.1% in June. However, the survey sample of 85,000 urban households only accounts for 0.03% of the urban employment in China, and the sampling rate is only half of 0.07% in the United States. Moreover, it is not representative of migrant workers and the sampling frame is aging. 3) The recruitment rate depends on the fact that job seekers and employers voluntarily register with local public employment service agencies, and the data shows a long-term upward trend, with limited reference value. In the second quarter of 2019, it was 1.22, both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. 4) To judge the employment situation, we need not only employment quantity indicators such as unemployment rate, but also employment quality indicators such as average working hours, salary growth rate and part-time job ratio, but there are limited indicators to measure employment quality at present.

　　Other employment data reflect the current real employment pressure. 1) The number of new jobs in cities and towns decreased by 2% year-on-year in the first half of this year, and the growth rate of the number of people receiving unemployment benefits and re-employment was not optimistic. In the first half of 2019, there were only 7.47 million new jobs in cities and towns, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%, and the target completion rate dropped to 67.0%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points compared with the first half of last year. In the first quarter of 2019, the year-on-year growth rate of the number of people receiving unemployment insurance benefits has increased for five consecutive quarters. From January to May 2019, the number of unemployed people in cities and towns re-employed decreased by 9.1%, and the number of people with employment difficulties decreased by 4.2%. 2) Both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI employee indices tend to decline. In June 2019, the manufacturing PMI employee index fell to 46.9%, the lowest since March 2009; Non-manufacturing PMI employees index fell to 48.2%, falling for two consecutive months. 3) The CIER index of Renmin University and Zhilian recruitment is still at a low level in the second quarter. The CIER index is the ratio of recruitment demand to the number of applicants on the Zhaopin recruitment website, which was 1.89 in the second quarter of 2019, although it rose slightly year-on-year, it was still at a low level. In terms of regions, the CIER indices in the eastern, central, western and northeastern regions in the second quarter of 2019 were 1.18, 1.14, 0.92 and 0.66, respectively, which all declined year-on-year, and the eastern region experienced the largest decline; In terms of cities, the CIER indices of first-tier, new-tier, second-tier and third-tier cities are 0.60, 0.94, 1.18 and 1.25 respectively.Second-and third-tier cities saw the biggest decline. 4) In the first half of 2019, the search volume of job-related keywords in Baidu Index surged. The search volume of Baidu for keywords such as "looking for a job", "recruitment", "recruitment information" and "unemployment benefits" in the past 90 days increased by 482%, 492%, 80% and 122% respectively.

　　The economic downturn will further put pressure on the job market. 1) The current economic and financial situation is grim. In the second quarter of 2019, the GDP growth rate dropped to a new low of 6.2%, 0.2 percentage points lower than that in the first quarter. Moreover, the impact of the escalation of trade friction in May and the intensive introduction of real estate financing tightening policies has not yet appeared. Recently, leading economic indicators have declined, such as real estate sales, land purchase and funding sources, PMI orders and PMI export orders. Moreover, the economic and financial structure is deteriorating. For example, the proportion of medium and long-term loans of enterprises has declined, while the proportion of short-term loans and short-term financing has increased; PPI goes down, and corporate profits decline. Although the continuous reduction of labor supply will alleviate the employment pressure, the economic slowdown will lead to a further slowdown in labor demand and further pressure on the job market, although large-scale unemployment is unlikely. 2) From the perspective of industry, the employment in manufacturing industry is mainly affected by the downturn in exports and the decline in profits of PPI-declining enterprises. The construction industry is affected by the limited space for infrastructure recovery and the decline in real estate investment, and the follow-up is not optimistic; According to Zhaopin’s recruitment data, the recruitment demand in the financial industry decreased by 39.7% and 37.0% in the first and second quarters respectively, and the Internet/e-commerce decreased by 22.5% and 13.6% respectively. From the perspective of key groups, the scale of college graduates continues to hit a new high, the growth rate of migrant workers slows down but their age is aging, the scale of "4050" personnel rises, and the employment pressure is greater. 3) Policy suggestions. First, further vigorously optimize the business environment, promote the implementation of tax reduction and fee reduction, and smooth financing channels.Give full play to the role of enterprises as the main body of stable employment, especially private and small and medium-sized enterprises. Private and small and medium-sized enterprises are the main body to attract employment, but the business environment has deteriorated in the past few years, including being injured to some extent in the past deleveraging, capacity reduction and environmental protection storms, and the continued downturn in exports has increased their survival pressure, coupled with poor financing channels and liquidity stratification. Although the government has issued a number of policies to bail out private and small and medium-sized enterprises, the effect of the policies remains to be seen. Second, increase the opening up of the service industry, especially the financial, educational, medical and telecommunications industries; Accelerate the construction of metropolitan areas and urban agglomerations with big cities as the core, increase the density and frequency of economically active population to promote agglomeration, and give full play to the role of service industry in absorbing employment. The third is to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, not only to prevent excessive financial bubble, but also to prevent active puncture from causing major financial risks. Fourth, solidly promote the large-scale enrollment expansion of higher vocational colleges, implement large-scale vocational skills training, and promote the transformation of labor skills to meet the needs of industrial transformation and upgrading.

　　Risk warning: the official unemployment rate is limited or distorted, and the policy fluctuates greatly.

　　catalogue

　　1 there are limitations in judging the employment situation simply by official unemployment rate and other data.

　　2 Other employment data reflect the current employment pressure.

　　2.1 New jobs in cities and towns decreased by 2% year-on-year in the first half of the year, and the growth rate of unemployment benefits and re-employment was not optimistic.

　　2.2 manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI employees’ indices are trending downward.

　　2.3 Renmin University and Zhilian recruitment CIER index is still at a low level in the second quarter.

　　2.4 Baidu Index job search related keywords surged in the first half of the year.

　　The economic downturn will further put pressure on the job market, but the possibility of mass unemployment is very low.

　　3.1 The current economic and financial situation is grim, and the labor market will be further under pressure.

　　3.2 The employment pressure of some industries and key groups will be further highlighted.

　　3.3 Policy recommendations

　　main body

　　1 there are limitations in judging the employment situation simply by official unemployment rate and other data.

　　What is employment? According to the definition of the International Labour Organization, people who have worked for at least one hour in order to obtain labor remuneration or business income during the reference week of the survey, as well as people who are on vacation or temporarily suspended from work but are not working, are regarded as employed persons. Therefore, to judge the employment situation, we need to observe not only the overall unemployment rate, the unemployment rate by age, but also the ratio of job vacancies and job seekers, the average working time of employed people, the salary growth rate and the part-time employment ratio. Although China has improved its employment statistics, there are still obvious problems, which are difficult to fully reflect the real employment situation.

　　1) The registered unemployment rate in cities and towns depends on the unemployed taking the initiative to register with the social and social departments, and it is only for the non-agricultural population. The data fluctuates slightly, and it fell to 3.61% in the second quarter of 2019, which is not related to the economic trend. In the early 1980s, China began to establish a registered unemployment system, which was called "unemployment statistics" at that time, and it was changed to "registered unemployment" in 1994. Urban registered unemployment rate = urban registered unemployed/(urban employees+urban registered unemployed). Registered unemployed people in cities and towns are unemployed people who are non-agricultural registered permanent residence, aged over 16 to retirement age, have the ability to work, are unemployed and ask for employment, and voluntarily register with public employment service agencies. Obviously, the registered unemployed do not include migrant workers and other permanent residents, so it is difficult to reflect the real unemployment situation. According to the data, the registered unemployment rate in cities and towns remained stable between 4.0% and 4.3% for a long time from 2002 to 2016, and continued to drop to 3.61% in June 2019 from 2017, which is obviously inconsistent with the economic growth trend.

　　2) The survey unemployment rate has been officially announced since the beginning of 2018, but the survey sample of 85,000 urban families only accounts for about 0.03% of the urban employment in China, and the sampling rate is only half of 0.07% in the United States, and the sample rotation problem leads to insufficient representation of migrant workers. In view of the above-mentioned problems of registered unemployment rate in cities and towns, the National Bureau of Statistics officially implemented the national labor force sampling survey twice a year in 2005, established the monthly labor force sampling survey system in 31 big cities in 2009, and expanded it to 65 cities in 2013. In 2016, the monthly labor force survey covered all prefecture-level cities (prefectures and leagues) and sampled 120,000 families in China, and began to publish the unemployment rate data of urban surveys continuously in early 2018. Obviously different from the registered unemployment rate in cities and towns, the survey unemployment rate in cities and towns in China is based on the statistics of permanent residents, and adopts the unemployment standard of the International Labour Organization, that is, people aged 16 or above who have no job but have been actively looking for a job in the past three months.

　　From the trend point of view, the survey unemployment rate in China and 31 big cities are weakly related to the trend of GDP, and the unemployment rate and GDP growth rate in 31 big cities with relatively long data period basically keep changing in the same direction. Judging from the urban survey unemployment rate, it has been fluctuating in the range of 4.8%-5.3% since January 2018, and it has been higher than 5% since January 2019 and 5.1% in June 2019. Because the urban survey unemployment rate is close to the natural unemployment rate of about 5%, the official believes that there is no periodic unemployment. From a year-on-year perspective, the urban survey unemployment rate basically continued to rise from -0.2 percentage points in January 2018 to 0.3 percentage points in June 2019.

　　There are still three problems in China’s urban survey unemployment rate statistics: First, the sample is insufficient. Among the 120,000 households in the monthly labor force survey, there are about 85,000 households (household units) in cities and towns, accounting for only 0.03% of the urban employment in China. In the United States, the survey sample in the unemployment rate statistics is 60,000 households, accounting for about 0.07% of the non-agricultural employment in the United States. Second, the representativeness of the foreign resident population may be insufficient. In the survey, in order to avoid sample aging, the National Bureau of Statistics adopts sample rotation, that is, it withdraws from the survey after completing four surveys within two years, which means that investigators must find relatively stable families, and permanent migrants with strong mobility may be excluded. Moreover, when the employment situation is not good, some migrant workers return to the countryside, which makes the urban unemployment rate lower in data. Third, the sampling frame is aging. According to the local statistics department, the data of the sixth population census in 2010 is used as the primary sampling frame. Although it is updated every year, it is only a simple expansion in practice, and the newly-built community still cannot enter the sampling frame, which leads to the serious aging of the existing survey samples and poor sample representativeness.

　　3) The recruitment rate depends on job seekers and employers voluntarily going to local public employment service agencies to register, and the data shows a long-term upward trend, with limited reference value. Multiplication ratio = job vacancy/number of job seekers. The data comes from public employment service agencies in 100 cities in Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security. Urban and rural workers who are of working age, have the ability to work and have employment requirements can apply for public employment services in the public employment service institutions of their permanent residence with relevant documents such as resident identity cards; Employers can consult with public employment service agencies and apply for employment services. Since the fourth quarter of 2010, the recruitment ratio has exceeded 1 and basically increased, and it has dropped to 1.22 in the second quarter of 2019, down by 0.05 and 0.01 percentage points respectively from the previous quarter and the same period last year. The relationship between the recruitment ratio and GDP change is weak, mainly because it relies on public employment service agencies at all levels to collect data by registration, and does not include new job-seeking channels such as campus recruitment, online recruitment and employment agency, which has narrow coverage and limited reference significance. As a reference, the US Department of Labor released JOLTS job vacancy data, which comes from the monthly survey of job vacancies and labor turnover rate, which surveys employers about the employment situation of enterprises, the number of vacant positions, recruitment and dismissal, etc. The survey sample covers about 16,000 American enterprises, covering most areas of the American economy. JOLT job vacancies in the United States have a wider coverage, which can better reflect the employment situation and positively change with the year-on-year growth rate of GDP.

　　4) Judging the employment situation requires not only employment quantity indicators such as unemployment rate, but also employment quality indicators such as average working hours, salary growth rate and part-time job ratio. However, there are limited indicators to measure employment quality at present, and there are also sampling problems. Enterprises rarely lay off employees immediately at the beginning of the bad economic situation, but generally choose to reduce wages and working hours first. In this case, the unemployment rate in urban surveys will not rise, but the quality of employment has begun to deteriorate. According to the monthly labor force survey of the National Bureau of Statistics, in June 2019, the average weekly working hours of employed people nationwide were 45.7 hours, 0.6 hours lower than that of the previous month and 0.2 hours lower than that of the same period of last year. However, there is also the problem of insufficient representation of migrant workers due to insufficient samples and sampling deviation, and there are no more employment indicators for reference. In contrast, the US Department of Labor publishes monthly indicators such as average weekly working hours, average weekly salary, full-time and part-time employment, which are comprehensive and can comprehensively reflect the quality of employment.

　　2 Other employment data reflect the current employment pressure.

　　Considering the limitations of the aforementioned employment indicators, we try to infer the current employment situation from other official and unofficial data.

　　2.1 New jobs in cities and towns decreased by 2% year-on-year in the first half of the year, and the growth rate of unemployment benefits and re-employment was not optimistic.

　　In the first half of 2019, the number of newly employed people in cities and towns was only 7.47 million, down 2.0% year-on-year, and the target completion rate dropped to 67.0%, down 1.4 percentage points from the first half of last year. In 2003, a statistical system was established for new employment in cities and towns, and the number of new employees in cities and towns = the cumulative number of new employees in cities and towns during the reporting period-the number of natural attrition. The statistics of new employment in cities and towns are not restricted by household registration, and include various forms of employment with a wide caliber, but it cannot be ruled out that someone frequently changes jobs many times in a year. In July 2018, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the number of newly employed urban workers reached a stage high of 2.9%, and then the trend declined. At the beginning of 2019, the cumulative number of newly employed urban workers began to grow negatively, reaching 7.47 million in June, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%. The target completion rate was 67.0%, which was 1.4 percentage points lower than the 68.4% in January-June 2018.

　　In the first quarter of 2019, the year-on-year growth rate of the number of people receiving unemployment insurance increased for five consecutive quarters. The number of unemployed people in cities and towns re-employed decreased by 9.1% from January to May 2019, and the number of people with employment difficulties decreased by 4.2%. The recipients of unemployment insurance benefits are employees of urban enterprises and institutions. In the first quarter of 2019, the number of people receiving unemployment insurance benefits was 2.27 million, up 1.8% from the previous month and the same period of last year. Among them, the growth rate of the previous month turned from negative to positive, and the year-on-year growth rate increased for five consecutive quarters. The number of unemployed people re-employed in cities and towns was 2.09 million from January to May 2019, a sharp decrease of 9.1% year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate dropped sharply for two consecutive months. In September 2018, the year-on-year growth rate of people with employment difficulties reached a high of 16.2% in recent years, and then began to decline rapidly. In February 2019, the year-on-year growth rate began to turn negative. From January to May 2019, the number of people with employment difficulties was 690,000, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%.

　　2.2 manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI employees’ indices are trending downward.

　　The PMI employee index reflects the views of enterprises on the scale of current employees compared with the previous period. In June 2019, the manufacturing PMI employee index fell to 46.9%, the lowest since March 2009; Non-manufacturing PMI employees index fell to 48.2%. PMI employee index is one of five sub-indices of PMI, among which manufacturing PMI started to be counted in 2005, with a sample of 3,000 enterprises; Non-manufacturing PMI began to be counted in 2007, targeting 4,000 sample enterprises. 50% is the critical point of expansion and contraction, and a PMI employee index of less than 50% means that more business leaders believe that the number of production and operation personnel is lower than that of a month ago.

　　Judging from the manufacturing PMI employee index, the manufacturing PMI employee index has been below 50% for 27 consecutive months since March 2017; In June 2019, it fell to 46.9%, falling for three consecutive months, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month and 2.1 percentage points from the same period last year. Among them, the PMI employee index of large, medium and small enterprises in manufacturing industry began to decline in the second half of 2018, and it was 47.0%, 45.9% and 48.3% respectively in June 2019, down 2.0, 2.4 and 1.9 percentage points respectively year-on-year. Medium-sized enterprises not only had a lower absolute level, but also had a larger decline.

　　Judging from the non-manufacturing PMI employee index, the non-manufacturing PMI employee index began to remain below 50% in September 2018, and fell to 48.2% in June 2019, falling for two consecutive months, down 0.1 and 0.7 percentage points respectively from the previous month and the same period last year. Among them, the construction industry PMI employee index began to decline rapidly from 54.1% in March 2019, and fell to 50.4% in June 2019. The service industry PMI employee index continued to be below 50% after July 2014, and began to decline rapidly from 49.7% in August 2018, and fell to 47.9% in June 2019.

　　Similarly, in the questionnaire survey of urban depositors of the central bank, the employment perception index and employment expectation index in the second quarter of 2019 were 44.2% and 52.3%, respectively, down 1.6 and 1.5 percentage points from the previous month. The questionnaire survey of urban depositors is a quarterly survey system established by the People’s Bank of China since 1999. Every quarter, 20,000 depositors are selected from 50 cities (large, medium and small) in China as the survey objects, and the employment feeling index and employment expectation index reflect the views of depositors on employment. From the first quarter to the second quarter of 2018, both the employment feeling index and the employment expectation index stopped rising and declined in fluctuations. In the second quarter of 2019, the employment experience index was 44.2%, down 1.6 and 0.8 percentage points respectively from the previous quarter and the same period of last year; The employment expectation index was 52.3%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month and flat year-on-year. In the second quarter of 2019, the proportion of people who chose "good situation and easy employment" in the employment experience index was 15.5%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month and flat year-on-year.

　　2.3 Renmin University and Zhilian recruitment CIER index is still at a low level in the second quarter.

　　The CIER index is the ratio of recruitment demand to the number of applicants on the Zhaopin recruitment website, which was 1.89 in the second quarter of 2019, although it rose slightly year-on-year, it was still at a low level. CIER index is a China employment market prosperity index jointly launched by the Employment Research Institute of Renmin University of China and Zhaopin. It is obtained by analyzing the data of Zhaopin, and it is a good quality and long-term data in the current unofficial employment statistics. CIER index = total recruitment demand/total number of applicants, with 1 as the watershed. When it is greater than 1, it indicates that the demand for labor in the job market is more than the supply of labor in the market, the competition in the job market tends to ease, and the job market is prosperous. In the second quarter of 2019, the CIER index was 1.89, up 0.21 and 0.01 respectively from the previous quarter and the same period last year. From the perspective of the chain, the increase was mainly due to seasonal factors. After entering the second quarter, the demand for employment increased significantly, and the number of people in need increased by 15.7%. After the peak of rework and job-hopping in the Spring Festival, the growth of job-seeking supply slowed down, and the number of job applicants increased by 2.7%. From a year-on-year perspective, the CIER index in the second quarter of 2019 remained at a low level since the second quarter of 2015.

　　In terms of regions, the CIER indices in the eastern, central, western and northeastern regions in the second quarter of 2019 were 1.18, 1.14, 0.92 and 0.66, respectively, which all declined year-on-year, and the eastern region experienced the largest decline; In terms of cities, the CIER indices of first-tier, new-tier, second-tier and third-tier cities are 0.60, 0.94, 1.18 and 1.25, respectively, and the second-tier and third-tier cities have the largest decline; In terms of the nature of enterprises, the CIER index of private enterprises and state-owned enterprises in the second quarter of 2019 was 0.94 and 0.52, respectively, showing a downward trend year-on-year. According to the explanation of the Employment Research Institute of Renmin University of China, the average value of the subentry CIER index is not equal to the overall CIER index, mainly because there may be multiple deliveries by job seekers, and the sum of the subentry job seekers is greater than the overall number of job seekers. In the second quarter of 2019, the CIER indices of the eastern, central, western and northeastern regions were 1.18, 1.14, 0.92 and 0.66, respectively, with the highest employment boom in the eastern region and the lowest in the northeastern region; Compared with the same period of last year, it decreased by 0.28, 0.19, 0.19 and 0.07 respectively, and the employment situation in the east deteriorated the fastest. In the second quarter of 2019, the CIER indices of first-tier, new-tier, second-tier and third-tier cities were 0.60, 0.94, 1.18 and 1.25, respectively, down by 0.11, 0.03, 0.34 and 0.31 percentage points year-on-year, with the second-tier and third-tier cities having the largest decline.In the second quarter of 2019, the CIER indexes of private enterprises, joint ventures, joint-stock enterprises, state-owned enterprises, listed companies and wholly foreign-owned enterprises were 0.94, 0.82, 0.70, 0.52, 0.73 and 0.69, respectively, down by 0.04, 0.05, 0.15, 0.35, 0.29 and 0.23 respectively.

　　2.4 Baidu Index job search related keywords surged in the first half of the year.

　　Baidu index can reflect the active search demand of netizens, and the search volume of keywords such as "looking for a job", "recruitment", "recruitment information" and "unemployment benefits" increased by 482%, 492%, 80% and 122? %, the employment pressure is prominent, and the employment situation is more severe than in previous years. Baidu Index takes the search volume of netizens in Baidu as the data base and keywords as the statistical object, and calculates the weighted sum of the search frequency of each keyword in Baidu web search, which can reflect the active search demand of netizens. 1) "Looking for a job": The Baidu search index of "looking for a job" keywords in 2015-2018 all rose to the peak of around 40,000 after the Spring Festival, with obvious periodicity. In February, April and June, 2019, the search index of "looking for a job" reached the peak of 274,000, 314,000 and 114,000 respectively, which fluctuated violently. As of July 27, 2019, the overall daily average increased by 482% year-on-year. 2) "Recruitment": The Baidu search index of the word "recruitment" largely represents the search will of job seekers. The index has soared since May 2019, rising from less than 10,000 to the current peak of 161,000, up 492% year-on-year in the past 90 days, reflecting the increased difficulty in finding a job and the prominent employment pressure. 3) "Recruitment Information": "Recruitment Information" can be used to represent the job-seeking needs of blue-collar workers. The peak after the Spring Festival in 2019 is nearly 30 times that of 2015-2018, and the unemployment problem of blue-collar and migrant workers is stronger than in previous years. Since July,The index experienced the second small peak in the year, and the daily average in the past 90 days increased by 80% year-on-year. 4) "Conditions for receiving unemployment benefits": The search volume of "Conditions for receiving unemployment benefits" has soared since March 2019, and the daily average value of the search index from March to July is about 2.3 times that of the same period of last year, with a year-on-year increase of 122% in the past 90 days, which means that the number of unemployed people has increased and the employment situation has deteriorated. Therefore, the current employment situation is more severe than in previous years, and the number of job seekers seeking unemployment protection and switching to various recruitment and recruitment websites has increased significantly.

　　The economic downturn will further put pressure on the job market, but the possibility of mass unemployment is very low.

　　3.1 The current economic and financial situation is grim, and the labor market will be further under pressure.

　　The current economic and financial situation is grim. In the second quarter of 2019, the GDP growth rate dropped to a new low of 6.2%, down 0.2 percentage points from the first quarter. Moreover, the impact of the trade war escalated again in May and the intensive introduction of real estate financing tightening policies has not yet appeared. Recently, leading economic indicators have declined, such as real estate sales, land purchase and funding sources, PMI orders and PMI export orders. Moreover, the economic and financial structure is deteriorating. For example, the proportion of medium and long-term loans of enterprises has declined, while the proportion of short-term loans and short-term financing has increased; PPI goes down, and corporate profits decline. In the second quarter of 2019, the real growth rate of GDP was 6.2%. After a short period of stabilization in the first quarter, it was 0.2 percentage points lower than that in the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year, the lowest point since the quarterly accounting of GDP was implemented in 1992, and it will go down again. The main reasons for the economic downturn are: the short-term inventory recovery is suppressed by the second half of the financial leverage cycle, the export effect of Sino-US trade friction appears, and the real estate investment inflection point appears due to the continuous tightening of real estate regulation. Although the issuance of special bonds has made great efforts, the land revenue has declined, and it is expected that the rebound of infrastructure will be limited, making it difficult to hedge the downward trend of the economy. From the data in June, although economic indicators such as consumption and investment have stabilized, they are still in a downturn, and leading indicators have declined. Among them, the PMI new order index was 49.6% in June, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; Real estate sales in June was -2.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points from the previous month, but it was still negative.And recently, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments have comprehensively tightened major financing channels such as bank loans, trusts and overseas debts, and the real estate financing situation in the second half of the year is grim; The medium-and long-term loans of newly-increased enterprises were 375.3 billion yuan in June, a year-on-year decrease of 24.8 billion yuan. The proportion of medium-and long-term loans of enterprises fluctuated at a low level, the loan structure deteriorated, and financial institutions’ distrust of enterprises increased. (See the report of Evergrande Research Institute in July, Born in Worry-Macro Outlook in 2019, Fully Estimating the Severity of the Current Economic and Financial Situation-Fully Interpreting the Economic and Financial Data in June).

　　Although the continuous reduction of labor supply will alleviate the employment pressure, the economic slowdown will lead to a further slowdown in labor demand and further pressure on the job market, but it is unlikely that large-scale unemployment will occur. The working-age population aged 15-59 in China reached a peak of 940 million in 2011, and decreased by 4.29 million annually from 2012 to 2018, with a total decrease of 30.06 million. The labor participation rate (economically active population/population aged 15 -64) gradually decreased to 76.2% in 2018, and the scale of labor supply continued to decrease. The economically active population in China reached a peak of 806.94 million in 2016, and the total number of employed people reached a peak of 776.4 million in 2017. From the perspective of the relationship between economic growth and employment, due to the larger economy and the transformation of economic structure to service industry, although the number of new urban jobs created by unit GDP growth has increased significantly, the downward economic growth has led to a significant slowdown in the growth rate of urban employees and non-agricultural employees. In 2011-2018, the number of newly created urban jobs increased from 1.29 million to 2.06 million, and the number of newly created urban jobs increased from 1.29 million to 1.49 million, which was basically stable in the last three years. The number of newly created non-agricultural jobs decreased from 1.74 million to 960,000, the growth rate of urban employees decreased from 3.54% to 2.25%, and the growth rate of non-agricultural employees decreased from 3.43% to 1.11%. However, as long as the policy is properly handled and no major systemic risks occur, the downside of subsequent economic growth is relatively limited.The possibility of mass unemployment is very low.

　　3.2 The employment pressure of some industries and key groups will be further highlighted.

　　In terms of industries, the employment in manufacturing industry is mainly affected by the downturn in exports and the decline in profits of PPI companies. The construction industry is affected by the limited space for infrastructure recovery and the decline in real estate investment, and the follow-up is not optimistic; According to Zhaopin’s recruitment data, the recruitment demand in the financial industry decreased by 39.7% and 37.0% in the first and second quarters respectively, and the Internet/e-commerce decreased by 22.5% and 13.6% respectively. 1) manufacturing industry. In 2017, the employment of manufacturing industry accounted for 26.3% of the employment of urban non-private units. Affected by the global economic downturn and Sino-US economic and trade frictions, exports continued to be sluggish. In the first half of 2019, exports were 0.1% year-on-year, down 9.8 percentage points from 2018; Among them, exports to the United States were -8.1% year-on-year, down 19.4 percentage points from the whole year of 2018. According to estimates, a 25% tariff on $250 billion of goods will affect the employment of 1.99 million people; If a 25% tariff is imposed on $550 billion of goods, it will affect the employment of 4.2 million people, especially the employment of manufacturing industries such as electromechanical and machinery, and the industrial chain is shifting from China to Viet Nam and other places. From the perspective of corporate profits, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by -2.4% year-on-year from January to June 2019, down by 19.6 percentage points compared with the same period of last year. The decline in corporate profits will suppress manufacturing employment. 2) Construction industry. In 2017, the employment in construction industry accounted for 15.0% and 18.9% of the employees in urban non-private units and the number of migrant workers respectively.From January to June, the investment in infrastructure (including water, electricity and gas) was 3.0% year-on-year, and it is expected to continue to rise with the support of the new regulations on special debts; However, the land revenue has fallen sharply, tax reduction and fee reduction have made local governments’ finances tight, and the continuation of local hidden debts has been strictly controlled, and there is limited room for infrastructure investment to rebound. From January to June, the growth rate of investment in real estate development dropped to 10.8%. Weak sales, negative growth in land purchase, and constrained financing of housing enterprises mean that real estate investment will continue to decline slowly in the future. 3) Financial industry and IT industry. According to Zhaopin’s recruitment data, the recruitment demand in the financial industry decreased by 39.7% and 37.0% respectively in the first and second quarters of 2019, especially in the situation of strict financial supervision. Internet/e-commerce recruitment demand decreased by 22.5% and 13.6% respectively. In addition, the demand for real estate/construction/building materials/engineering and computer software in the second quarter decreased by 15.9% and 13.9% respectively.

　　From the perspective of key groups, the scale of college graduates continues to hit a new high, the growth rate of migrant workers slows down but their age is aging, the scale of "4050" personnel rises, and the employment pressure is greater. In terms of college graduates, the number of college graduates (including graduate students) climbed from 880,000 in 1999 to 8.34 million in 2019. Considering that the enrollment of ordinary colleges and universities (including graduate students) increased from 8.03 million to 8.77 million in 2015-2018, the scale of college graduates will continue to reach a new high in the next few years. Because some students’ skills are difficult to adapt to the employment requirements, the pressure of "difficult employment" continues to rise. In terms of migrant workers, the scale of migrant workers increased from 240 million in 2010 to 290 million in 2018, and the growth rate slowed down from 5.4% to 0.6%. However, migrant workers with junior high school education or below are more aging and face greater unemployment risks in the economic downturn. From 2008 to 2018, the proportion of migrant workers over 50 years old rose from 11.4% to 22.4%, and the proportion of 41-50 years old rose from 18.6% to 25.5%. In terms of "4050" personnel, the scale and proportion of "4050" personnel have basically continued to rise, and they are old, with low academic qualifications and single skills, and are prone to long-term unemployment. Among them, from 2003 to 2018, the proportion of women aged 40-59 to women aged 15-59 increased from 38.0% to 47.5%, and the proportion of men aged 50-59 to men aged 15-59 increased from 16.4% to 22.3%.Together, the proportion of the working-age population aged 15-59 rose from 27.1% to 34.6%.

　　3.3 Policy recommendations

　　Generally speaking, in the face of the complicated and severe internal and external situations such as Sino-US trade friction, high macro leverage ratio, increasing downward pressure on the economy, and the critical period of reform and opening up, it is necessary to strengthen countercyclical adjustment through fiscal and monetary policies, and also to maintain strategic strength to prevent flooding. The most important thing is to unswervingly promote reform and opening up, further liberalize market access, restore entrepreneurial confidence, stimulate new growth points such as new economy and service industry, and promote a virtuous circle of economic growth and employment increase. Specifically:

　　First, further vigorously optimize the business environment, promote the implementation of tax reduction and fee reduction, and smooth financing channels, so as to give full play to the role of enterprises as the main body of stable employment, especially private and small and medium-sized enterprises. Private and small and medium-sized enterprises are the main body to attract employment, but the business environment has deteriorated in the past few years, including being injured to some extent in the past deleveraging, capacity reduction and environmental protection storms, and the continued downturn in exports has increased their survival pressure, coupled with poor financing channels and liquidity stratification. Although the government has issued a number of policies to bail out private and small and medium-sized enterprises, the effect of the policies remains to be seen. Therefore, the proactive fiscal policy should continue to promote the implementation of tax reduction and fee reduction, and the more profitable enterprises are, the more they should "release water to raise fish". Monetary policy should continue to unblock the transmission mechanism from wide money to wide credit, increase the structural reform of financial supply side, and intensify efforts to solve the problems of financing difficulties and high financing for private and small and medium-sized enterprises. In addition, we should continue to vigorously promote innovation and entrepreneurship, increase entrepreneurial support, and promote employment through entrepreneurship.

　　Second, increase the opening up of the service industry, especially the financial, educational, medical and telecommunications industries; Accelerate the construction of metropolitan areas and urban agglomerations with big cities as the core, increase the density and frequency of economically active population to promote agglomeration, and give full play to the role of service industry in absorbing employment. In 2012, the number of employees in the secondary industry in China reached its peak, and then it completely relied on the tertiary industry to absorb the labor transferred from the primary industry and the secondary industry. In 2018, the proportion of employment in the primary, secondary and tertiary industries in China was 26.1%, 27.6% and 46.3% respectively. The proportion of employment in the tertiary industry was far from the average level of 74.5% in high-income economies, and there was a broad space for employment. On the one hand, it is necessary to increase the opening-up of the service industry at home and abroad, and vigorously deregulate it. At present, China’s manufacturing industry is basically open to the outside world, while its service industry is relatively low. There is still a lot of room for opening to the outside world in the fields of automobile, finance, high-end clothing, energy, architectural design, medical care, education, telecommunications, internet, press and publication, radio and television, express delivery and so on. On the other hand, the development of most service industries needs agglomeration more than industrial development. We should accelerate the construction of metropolitan areas and urban agglomerations with big cities as the core, promote the further agglomeration of industries and population, and form an industrial division system in which core cities develop high-end service industries, small and medium-sized cities develop manufacturing industries and some service industries.

　　The third is to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, not only to prevent excessive financial bubble, but also to prevent active puncture from causing major financial risks. Recently, a series of tightening policies for real estate financing have been introduced intensively, from overseas debt, trust and credit to comprehensive tightening. At present, on the one hand, it is necessary to prevent money from releasing water to stimulate the real estate bubble, on the other hand, it is also necessary to prevent active puncture from causing major financial risks. If it is punctured actively, the Sino-US trade friction will not continue. Ten crises and nine real estates, the housing market value in China is about 300 trillion yuan, the stock market is about 60 trillion yuan, and the bond market is about 70 trillion yuan. Old-fashioned seeks the country to exchange time for space, stabilize land prices and stabilize expectations, and use the time window to promote housing system reform and long-term mechanism. At the same time, normal business should be allowed to develop, and irregular business should be carried out step by step, with the front door open and the back door closed, rather than across the board. At present, it is especially necessary to support M&A financing. The merger of unfavorable assets or problematic projects between enterprises is the main force to resolve bad and financial risks, and it is impossible to rely on the state to resolve them.

　　Fourth, solidly promote the large-scale enrollment expansion of higher vocational colleges, implement large-scale vocational skills training, and promote the transformation of labor skills to meet the needs of industrial transformation and upgrading. According to the requirements of the Government Work Report of 2019 on the large-scale enrollment expansion of 1 million people in higher vocational colleges, in May, the Ministry of Education and other six departments jointly issued the Implementation Plan for the Special Work of Enrollment Expansion in Higher Vocational Colleges, emphasizing that "developing higher vocational education is a strategic move to alleviate the current employment pressure and solve the shortage of highly skilled talents", which is mainly aimed at fresh high school graduates, secondary vocational graduates, retired soldiers, laid-off workers and migrant workers. In the same month, the General Office of the State Council issued the Action Plan for Vocational Skills Upgrading (2019-2021), which further emphasized that "vocational skills training is a key measure to maintain employment stability and alleviate structural employment contradictions", and required that more than 50 million subsidized vocational skills trainings be conducted in three years, including more than 15 million in 2019.

This article first appeared on WeChat WeChat official account: Zeping Macro. The content of the article belongs to the author’s personal opinion and does not represent Hexun.com’s position. Investors should operate accordingly, at their own risk.

Special feature of 1905 film network 　 The film that will land in the Lunar New Year archives on December 29th recently held its first press conference in Beijing. Chen Kexin and Wu Junru appeared as producer and director respectively, and with the blessing of Mahua FunAge, the national expectation value of this film increased greatly.

　

I just suddenly felt something was wrong, huh? Isn’t Ceng Guoxiang the director of this film? How did it become Wu Junru’s directorial debut? Isn’t she the producer+starring? In addition, it has been rumored that the starring papi sauce is also a screenwriter of the film. How did this suddenly change people?

Papi sauce’s real name is Jiang Yilei

　

Of course, at that time, the film was also called "Sister Ling made a scene in your house", but no matter from the main lineup or the previous promotional film, it was definitely the same movie as "YaoYaoYaoLing".

　

We all have good memories. Don’t think that if we change our names, we won’t know you!

　

Here, Brother Dao just wants to ask the film side, who made this film and who made it up? After all, "YaoYaoYaoLing" is about to be released in the mainland, but the audience has to spend real money to buy tickets, so how can they have the right to know?

　

So, when did this Rashomon begin? Come on, draw a key point:

　

Some netizens found out that the words "New Works Produced by Chen Kexin and Directed by Ceng Guoxiang" were left in the synopsis column on the Douban platform of "YaoYaoling".

　

The screenshot of the watercress information of the earliest "Sister Ling makes a scene in your house" was not intercepted, but when some netizens took a screenshot the day before yesterday, the name of "Sister Ling makes a scene in your house" has changed to another name of "Yaoyaoling", and the director of the film has turned into Wu Junru, but in the synopsis, it still says "the new work directed by Ceng Guoxiang", and the screenwriter column is still papi sauce (real name is Jiang Yilei).

　

The previous Douban entry of YaoYaoLing

　

The latest entry of YaoYaoLing

　

Of course, the synopsis of Douban has been updated to the latest version, and the writers have been replaced by Zhou Yunhai, Muchun Zha and Wang Yixing.

　

Ceng Guoxiang’s studio photos exposed by various actors were always there from the beginning of filming to the end of filming.

　

Boot photo

　

Studio photo

　

Killing photos

　

Zhang Yi, the leading actor, once wrote an article in his WeChat WeChat official account, mentioning that Ceng Guoxiang was the film director. At that time, the title of Chen Kexin and Wu Junru were more clearly defined, so how could it not arouse the speculation of us "people who eat melons"?

　

On January 27th, 2017, actor Zhang Yi made it clear in his New Year message that he had devoted himself to the filming of "Sister Ling makes a scene in your house", which was produced by Chen Kexin and Wu Junru and directed by Ceng Guoxiang.

　

As the star of the film, it is impossible for Zhang Yi to sign a contract. He has been filming on the set. I still don’t know who the director is, right?

　

Love Zhang Yi, this "real hammer" has not been deleted.

　

If all this is not enough to prove that Ceng Guoxiang is the director of this film, then look at the photo carefully, and you will find the words [Director: Ceng Guoxiang] impressively in the photo.

　

Then how did Ceng Guoxiang get out?

　

Conjecture 1

　

The film style can’t be discussed properly, the director loses the dominant position in the film, and Ceng Guoxiang is forced or takes the initiative to out.

　

In April this year, before the screening of the feature film, there was a propaganda film "Sister Ling made a scene in Meng Gui Fang". At that time, the name of the director did not appear, and the positions of Chen Kexin and Wu Junru were only producer. It seems that at that time, the film has decided to abandon Ceng Guoxiang, but as for who will take over, it has not been decided yet. Of course, this is also a wild guess by Brother Dao. If it is right, it is purely a coincidence.

　

This earlier version of the promo is quite different from the first trailer recently exposed by YaoYaoYaoLing. "Ling Jie makes a scene in Meng Gui Fang" is full of Hong Kong flavor, full of Hong Kong retro style. YaoYaoLing is closer to the aesthetic habits of mainland audiences.

　

In fact, as early as April 9th this year, Ceng Guoxiang accepted a question from the 1905 Film Network at the Hong Kong Celebration. At that time, he clarified that "Sister Ling made a scene in Meng Gui Fang" was not his work, and this collaboration with Chen Kexin was just to help. Ceng Guoxiang also said that as a creator, it is most important to find the story he wants to shoot, and he prefers to shoot the story he wants to express.

　

From this point of view, it is also possible that Ceng Guoxiang lost the leading role of "Sister Ling makes a scene in your house", which led to the final style and direction of the film, which was quite different from Ceng Guoxiang’s expectation. In the end, Ceng Guoxiang could only give up the film voluntarily.

　

Conjecture 2

　

There was a help agreement before, saying, "we are logging tired", and the director changed people?

　

Two days ago, at the press conference of YaoYaoLing, Chen Kexin and Wu Junru kept silent about the beginning and end of Ceng Guoxiang out, and they shared the interesting story of shooting YaoYaoLing — — Wu Junru laughed and said that the couple had quarreled for an hour in the bathroom on the set because of the film, while Chen Kexin admitted that during the process of "supervising the work", parents often felt like protecting their children.

As for Ceng Guoxiang, in addition to publicly thanking her husband Chen Kexin for his advice, Wu Junru singled out another person who gave him a lot of help, that is, Ceng Guoxiang, a new Hong Kong director.

　

Most mainland audiences are familiar with the name Ceng Guoxiang, which should begin with the painful youth love film July and An Sheng, which was a great success in 2016. This work also helped Zhou Dongyu and Sandra win the Golden Horse Award for Best Actress, and director Ceng Guoxiang also won many awards and nominations. Chen Kexin is one of the producers of July and An Sheng. At that time, there were various reports praising Chen Kexin for taking the new director.

　

When YaoYaoLing was also called "Sister Ling made a scene in Meng Gui Fang", many media reported that Chen Kexin once again escorted the new film directed by Ceng Guoxiang.

Now, the play is finished and will be released, but Ceng Guoxiang has changed from a director to a friend to help!

　

In Ceng Guoxiang’s Weibo message, many fans who eat melons also raised the same question. Ceng Guoxiang also responded to this matter in Weibo: "We are all a family, please call me whenever you have something". When we later asked the film propagandist for proof, the other party also gave the answer of "family".

　

In the film industry, especially in Hong Kong, there are still many stories about "one family" helping each other. Take Chen Kexin, the producer of this film, as an example. When he created the film, he personally certified the Hong Kong director Liu Weiqiang to help him a lot. In the "Golden Harvest Prosperity" in the 1980s, Sammo Hung, as the eldest brother, also gave Jackie Chan and others similar assistance in the early creative stage. It can be said that the friendship of "family" can be regarded as a special "culture" passed down in this circle.

　

Only this time "YaoYaoYaoLing" is different. After all, at the beginning of shooting, the starring role of this film has been sealed, and Ceng Guoxiang is the director. However, on the eve of the release, the director changed the controlling person from the film to a passerby who helped, which is not the same as the so-called clear help between the two sides. However, it is obviously unreasonable for the film side to explain it with only one sentence: "we are logging tired".

　

The director was changed, which is nothing new in the film circle. In the early years, there were media reports that Chen Kexin replaced the original director Chen Desen, and Liu Weiqiang was the top one. However, rumors are always difficult to get a positive response from the parties, but time has proved everything. No matter what is right or wrong, the director of guillotines is Liu Weiqiang.

　

"Family" is a good word, and "family" seems to be kind to direct a movie. But today, when we pay more and more attention to intellectual property rights, even a "family" wants to know how everyone divides their work in the movie and doesn’t want to bury anyone’s talent.

　

For what reason did Ceng Guoxiang, who has been following the "Sister Ling" crew to the final stage, quit this project? Since he helped a lot, why didn’t the director Wu Junru+Ceng Guoxiang? How much did Wu Junru shoot and how much did Ceng Guoxiang help?

　

Brother Dao thinks that the film has an obligation to explain to the public that, after all, the audience is the one who ultimately spends money, and the director is also an important indicator for the audience to enter the cinema.

　

Finally, I also wish the YaoYaoLing, which will be released in the mainland on December 29th, a big sale.

Early Indian films:

"Caravan" warms a generation in China. The episode of "Wanderer" is widely sung.　

　 　 Indian films have a long history with China audiences. In 1955, The Wanderer directed by Raj Kapoor was translated by changchun film studio and premiered in China, becoming the first film to introduce China. The film was re-released in China in 1978 and swept the country. The episodes "Song of Raz" and "Song of Rita" were widely sung. Since the reform and opening up, a large number of Indian song and dance love movies such as Caravan, Nuli and Cinnabar Love have entered China, especially Caravan, which has a far-reaching influence. aruna irani’s dance and Lata’s singing have warmed the hearts of a generation. After entering the new century, Hollywood movies are coming on a large scale, and Indian movies, together with movies from other countries, are gradually pushed to the edge, which leads to the China audience’s impression of it not being updated in time. All this will be improved with the signing of the China-India film cooperation agreement in 2014.

　 　　At the beginning of its birth, Indian films were dominated by myths and ancient themes, such as King Harish Chandra, Salandri and Light of Asia. In 1931, India’s first sound film "Aram Allah" appeared, interspersed with 10 songs and several dance scenes, which was a great success, and then set off a wave of musical production. Because Indians have a special liking for song and dance performances since ancient times (classical Sanskrit dramas and various folk dramas carry a large number of song and dance performances), and singing and dancing are also a part of their daily life, song and dance passages have since become an indispensable element of Indian films, and the films with wide influence include Wanderer, Caravan, Warm and Warm People, Bollywood Love for Life and Death and so on.

　 　　Nevertheless, there are still many different kinds of films in the history of Indian film. In 1930s, Indian filmmakers studied western artistic techniques and made many films to explore social problems. After the victory of World War II, films such as Doctor Kodi Hua by Sendaram and Son of the Earth by K·A· Abbas represented the rise of Indian national films. In the 1950s and 1960s, satya Kit Rey, BimalRoy and others started the Indian "New Film" movement, focusing on subjects closely related to the people, and won international prizes one after another. This tradition was inherited by "neo-realism" and "social school" writers and lasted until the 1980s and 1990s. Later, historical films and action films with high entertainment value, such as Ashoka and Terrorists, caused great waves in India.

　 　 We often refer to Indian movies as Bollywood movies, but this is not an accurate name. The word "Bollywood" is a combination of "Hollywood" and the first letter of Mumbai’s old English name "Bombay". At first, it refers to the film production base in Mumbai, while "Bollywood film" refers to Hindi films produced here. Indian film industry is composed of Hindi films, Tamil films, Bengali films and other production bases. After the rise in the 1920s and 1930s, the short-lived crisis during World War II, the post-war prosperity, the depression in the 1980s and the resurgence in the 1990s, it has exerted great influence on the culture of the Middle East, Africa, Southeast Asia and even the whole world.

Successful listing does not mean that you can sit back and relax. How to make the brand develop for a long time after listing is the beginning of the test.

This article was originally published by Hongcan.com (ID: hongcan18), by Jian Yuhao; Editor: Jing Xue.

On April 23rd, Chabaidao (2555.HK) was officially listed on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. However, the performance on the first day of listing was not ideal. On the morning of 23rd, Chabaidao opened at HK$ 15.74 per share, which was lower than the issue price of HK$ 17.5. At the close, Chabaidao recorded HK$ 12.80 per share, with a market value of only HK$ 18.914 billion. In intraday trading, the share price of Chabaidao once fell to HK$ 10.80/share.

Time goes back to a week ago. On April 15, the first day of the public offering of Chabaidao, it attracted attention because the public offering did not achieve full subscription. In addition, at that time, Chabaidao did not introduce cornerstone investors. Many investors have said that if a company with a valuation of tens of billions does not introduce cornerstone investors, it may mean that the valuation of this enterprise is too expensive, or institutional investors are not optimistic about the future profit prospects of the enterprise.　

Although it was successfully listed, there are different opinions in the industry about "the second share of new tea". On the one hand, the successful listing is a milestone achievement for Chabaidao. However, in the eyes of some people in the industry, listing is not once and for all. In the increasingly competitive new tea circuit, there are still many uncertainties in the future development of Chabaidao.　

After 01.80, the couple sold milk tea with a net worth of over 14 billion.

According to public reports, the founder of Chabaidao, Wang Xiaolong, and his wife, Liu Yuhong, were both born in the 1980s. Wang Xiaolong was a senior tea artist and his wife was a tea lover. Because they have accumulated rich tea knowledge and practical experience in their past work and life, they started the entrepreneurial experience of a tea shop.　

In 2008, near Wenjiang No.2 Middle School in Chengdu, Sichuan, the first Chabaidao opened. This store, which is less than 20 square meters, is mainly for students with low spending power, and mainly sells powdered milk tea in the form of foreign belts.　

At that time, compared with the hot demand of portable brewing milk tea, the existing tea was still in its infancy. The emergence of "Tea Hundred Ways" just fills this blank. With good products and affordable prices, it has successfully attracted the attention of students’ consumer groups. The blank of the market itself, coupled with the advantages of site selection, enabled Wang and his wife to successfully earn the first bucket of gold. A year later, they opened a second branch on the campus of Southwestern University of Finance and Economics (Liulin Campus).　

In 2010, the trademark "Tea Hundred Roads" was officially registered. In the same year, two major desktop milk tea brands, Diandian and coco, successively entered the mainland for development. In the following years, a number of existing tea brands such as Xicha, Lujiao Lane and Naixue Tea began to rise, and new Chinese tea officially entered the stage of branding and chain development.　

△ Image source: Chabaidao official little red book　

In 2016, Chabaidao opened its franchise in Chengdu for the first time, upgraded its stores and started its brand operation. This year, the number of stores in Chabaidao exceeded 100.　

Generally speaking, the development speed of Tea Hundred Roads in the early stage is not fast, and the sense of existence is not strong.　

It was not until 2018 that this situation began to change. This year, Chabaidao began to aim at the whole country, which opened the expansion of the whole country, and the rapid growth of Chabaidao began to enter the investor’s field of vision.　

In May and June, 2023, Chabaidao successively received two rounds of financing totaling 970 million yuan, which was led by Lanxin Asia, followed by many well-known investment institutions such as Zhengxin Valley, Grassroots Zhiben, CICC and Tomato Capital, with a post-investment valuation of 17.6 billion yuan.　

According to the latest prospectus information of Chabaidao, Wang Hao and Liu Yuhong hold about 81.75% of the shares of Chabaidao. According to the valuation of 18 billion, their net worth has reached about 14.5 billion yuan. Wang Hao and Liu Yuhong also made the Hurun Report in 2023 and became the new "dark horse" in the rich list in 2023.　

02.99% of the revenue depends on franchisees, and the pressure on the supply chain is not small.

Looking back on the development of Tea Hundred Roads, we can see that joining in business is an important driving force for the rapid development of Tea Hundred Roads.　

According to the prospectus, as of December 31st, 2023, Chabaidao has opened 8,016 stores in China, covering 31 provinces and cities across the country, achieving comprehensive coverage of all provinces and county-level cities in China. Among them, the proportion of franchise stores accounted for 99%.　

On the surface, it seems that Chabaidao is a direct consumer-oriented business, but in fact, Chabaidao is similar to Mixue Ice City, and it is also a supply chain company wearing a milk tea coat. Selling goods and equipment to franchisees is the core business of Chabaidao.　

According to the prospectus, from 2021 to 2023, Chabaidao achieved revenues of 3.625 billion yuan, 4.197 billion yuan and 5.659 billion yuan through franchise stores, accounting for more than 99% of the total revenue; Among them, the income from selling goods and equipment to franchise stores accounts for about 95%, and the gross profit margin of this business is also maintained at about 32%.　

△ Chart source: screenshot of Cha Baidao prospectus　

The core of this business model, similar to S2B2C, is to reduce the operating costs of franchisees and improve the overall profitability through the advantages of supply chain and standardized processes.　

However, unlike the self-built supply chain of Mixue Ice City, Chabaidao mainly relies on third-party suppliers and other business partners to provide raw materials and services for it.　

According to the prospectus, in 2023, the procurement ratio of Chabaidao from its top five external suppliers (including dairy products, sugar, juice and other ingredients, packaging materials, etc.) was as high as 36.6%.　

△ Chart source: screenshot of Cha Baidao prospectus　

Perhaps it is also realized that there is no small risk in relying on third-party suppliers. Therefore, in the past several rounds of financing, Cha Baidao has repeatedly mentioned that the funds raised are mainly used to improve the overall operational capability and strengthen the supply chain capability.　

At present, Chabaidao has established a supply chain center covering every key link of supply chain management from product development, procurement, logistics to after-sales service and quality control. At the same time, Sichuan Tea Co., Ltd. was established to provide brand logistics and distribution services.　

In addition, Chabaidao and Bawang Chaji jointly established Sichuan Chabenyuan New Materials Technology Co., Ltd.. The company’s business scope includes research and development of new materials technology, manufacturing of bio-based materials, standardization services, sales and manufacturing of plastic products, sales of packaging materials and products, and import and export of goods.　

It is worth noting that in addition to the continuous strengthening of the supply chain, Chabaidao has been actively exploring overseas markets and coffee tracks in the past two years.　

In December 2023, Chabaidao opened the first store of coffee sub-brand "Coffee Ash" in Chengdu, and entered the coffee track for the first time.　

In January 2024, Chabaidao officially went to sea, and the first overseas store was selected in Gangnam-gu, Seoul, South Korea. Later, stores were opened in Seoul Hongda and Seoul Yau Pavilion. As of April 20, 2024, the number of Chabaidao stores in Korea has reached three.　

At present, it remains to be seen whether Chabaidao has explored the new amount in terms of going to sea and coffee business.　

03. Queue for listing, and the 2024 New Tea Listing Competition started.

In fact, in addition to the hundreds of teas, there are many tea brands waiting in line for listing.　

In January this year, Mi Xue Bing Cheng and Gu Ming submitted prospectuses to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange at the same time. Subsequently, on February 14th, Auntie Shanghai, a tea brand, submitted a prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The co-sponsors were CITIC Securities, haitong international and Dongzheng International.　

△ Image source: Red Meal Network photo　

On April 11th, the Hong Kong Economic Daily also reported that Bawang Tea Ji would go public in the United States as soon as the middle of this year, raising between 200 million and 300 million US dollars (a contract of 1.57 billion to 2.35 billion Hong Kong dollars).　

Why do new tea brands start to get together and go public? In this regard, there are many views in the industry that whoever can take the lead in successful IPO will seize the opportunity among the tea drinks that are "rolled out of the sky".　

In particular, tea brands need a lot of financial support to cope with the competition in the current tea track such as "joining war", "sinking war" and "price war".　

In the past year, in addition to hundreds of teas, brands such as Guming and Auntie in Shanghai have also announced the sprint of 10,000 stores. In order to achieve this goal first, brands often need more funds to spread the store network. With the cooling of the new consumer investment market, the attention of the primary market to the new tea market has obviously declined. Therefore, listing has become a new way for new tea drinkers to obtain funds.　

But the success of listing does not mean that the brand can sit back and relax. Take Chabaidao as an example, it and most new tea brands are in the mid-range price range of 10-20 yuan, including the above-mentioned Guming, Shanghai Auntie and Bawang Tea Ji, which are already waiting in line for listing.　

There are many competitors, and the homogenization of new tea itself has become more and more serious. It is conceivable that these new tea brands in the middle price zone will still face a lot of competitive pressure in the future.　

Today I’m bringing you a domestic car. As for the outstanding performance of the car, please read it together.

Let’s take a look at the appearance of the tank 300 first. The whole front of the tank 300 looks very individual and sporty. Coupled with concise headlights, the shape is very young. The car is equipped with LED daytime running lights, front fog lights, automatic opening and closing, adaptive far and near light, delayed closing and so on. Come to the side of the car, the car body size is 4760MM*1930MM*1903MM, the car uses domineering lines, the car body looks very cold, with large-sized thick-walled tires, it looks full of movement. In the rear part, the overall shape of the rear part echoes the front face, and the taillights are very angular. Coupled with the unique exhaust pipe, it is still relatively soft overall.

Coming into the car, the interior design of Tank 300 is very young and has a good visual effect. The steering wheel of the car is well designed, equipped with the functions of manual steering wheel up and down+front and rear adjustment, steering wheel heating and so on, which looks a little more atmospheric. Take a look at the central control, with a 12.3-inch touch-sensitive LCD central control screen, which makes the interior style impressive and the details are still in place. The dashboard and seats also give people a good feeling. Let’s take a look. The car is equipped with a domineering dashboard, and the sports atmosphere is relatively in place. The car uses leather seats, which are wrapped in place and the overall comfort is acceptable.

The car is equipped with car networking, driving mode selection, remote control key, Bluetooth key, rear wiper, interior atmosphere light and other configurations, and the configuration performance is relatively good, which improves the convenience of drivers to some extent.

This car has been introduced almost before, and I believe many users who buy a car have taken a fancy to its comfort and practicality. If you are excited, you may wish to go offline and actually feel it.

Welcome to [car home Shenzhen Special Promotion Channel], which brings you an exciting news: At present, high-profile models are on sale in Shenzhen with limited time discount. This highly acclaimed car is in the process of preferential treatment, with a maximum subsidy of 26,000 yuan, further lowering the original starting price to 99,800 yuan. This is an opportunity not to be missed to buy a car. If you want to experience the excellent performance of Roewe D7 and enjoy more attractive prices, you must click the "Check Car Price" button in the quotation form to get the latest preferential policies and the best car purchase scheme.

The exterior design of Roewe D7 shows a unique sense of modernity and exquisite craftsmanship. The front face adopts the family’s iconic inverted trapezoidal air intake grille with streamlined LED headlights, creating a strong visual impact. The body lines are smooth, and the overall style is stable, showing the luxury business atmosphere. The handling of details highlights Roewe’s pursuit of quality, and both the body proportion and the detail design reflect the designer’s ingenuity.

The side design of Roewe D7 presents an elegant streamlined outline, with a body size of 4890mm*1890mm*1510mm and a wheelbase of 2810mm, which provides spacious interior space for passengers. The front and rear wheel tracks are 1600mm, which ensures good driving stability. Tyre size chooses 225/50 R18 with dynamic rim design, which not only enhances the visual impact of the vehicle, but also ensures the comfort and performance during driving. On the whole, the lateral lines of Roewe D7 are smooth and exquisite, giving consideration to the sense of strength and movement, showing its unique design aesthetics.

The interior design of Roewe D7 is famous for its exquisiteness and sense of science and technology, which shows the luxurious atmosphere. The cockpit is equipped with a steering wheel wrapped in leather, which not only feels comfortable, but also supports manual up and down+front and rear adjustment to meet the needs of different drivers. 12.3-inch central control screen, high definition, integrated multimedia system, navigation, telephone, air conditioning and many intelligent functions, providing convenient operation experience. In terms of seats, the leather and suede materials are mixed and designed, which not only ensures the texture, but also takes into account the ride comfort. The main and co-pilot seats support multi-directional adjustment, including front and rear, backrest, height and lumbar support, equipped with heating and ventilation functions, and the driver’s seat also has electric seat memory function. The rear seats support proportional tilting, which provides flexibility for storage or passenger space expansion. On the whole, the interior of Roewe D7 is both practical and luxurious, providing drivers and passengers with a high-quality driving experience.

Roewe D7 is equipped with a 1.5L L4 engine with 112 horsepower, which provides a maximum power output of 82kW, and is matched with a first-speed DHT transmission to ensure the smooth operation and fuel economy of the vehicle. This engine not only meets the daily driving needs, but also takes into account the balance between performance and efficiency.

Summing up the owner’s comments, he praised the exterior design of Roewe D7, especially the car paint of Yuguanglan, although there was a slight episode, but the overall value was well received. The inductive design of the front face and the integrated headlights, together with the slender body and the small duck wing tailgate, create a unique aesthetic effect. He said that the car purchase process was pleasant and the car experience was satisfactory, and he looked forward to the exchange and sharing of other car owners.

Third, the historical review of the ITY car system

● The first generation of CITY(1996 -2002)

　　As mentioned earlier, in 1996, Honda named the successor model of the second generation of CITY as Logo, and at the same time gave the name of CITY to a brand-new model put into production by Honda in Thailand. The internal code of the first generation Honda CITY is SX8, which is a car based on the old fourth generation Civic platform (the fourth generation Civic production year: 1987 -1991, the fifth generation Civic production year: 1991 -1995, and the sixth generation Civic production year: 1995 -2000).

　　Although the first generation of CITY comes from Honda’s old vehicle platform, it has the advantages of mature technology and low cost, which is in line with its positioning as a national car of developing countries in Asia. The first generation Honda CITY was first put into production in Thailand in April 1996, and 70% of its parts were purchased locally. By February 1997, CITY had sold 14,352 vehicles, accounting for 66% of the market share of Thailand’s vehicles under 450,000 baht (about 80,000 RMB). Following Thailand, the first generation of CITY was put into production in Philippine, Malaysian, Pakistani, Indian and other countries, but the car was not introduced to China.

　　The first generation Honda CITY has only one sedan, so its body size is almost the same as the sedan version of the fourth generation Civic, with a length, width and height of 4270mm×1690mm×1395mm and a height of 2500 mm.. However, the shape of the first generation Honda CITY has been redesigned, which is more in line with people’s aesthetic standards for cars in the 1990s. Its overall shape is simple and generous, and its body proportion is coordinated.

　　The most obvious feature of the previous version is that the fog lamp is located at the lower air inlet, and the body rubbing strip, exterior rearview mirror and door handle are all black. At the same time, the front and rear bumpers are made up of three sections. According to the introduction, this is mainly to facilitate the parts to be transported from Japan to Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines and other sub-countries by shipping, and then assembled and produced after reaching the destination. The first generation of CITY was redesigned in the middle of 2000, and the later version was called CITY type Z in some countries. The front face and taillights of the new car were redesigned, and the integrated front and rear bumpers were replaced.

　　The design of the interior part is mainly to reflect practicality. The center console is dark gray in overall, and the layout is simple and regular. The steering wheel adopts a two-spoke shape with spokes at 4 o’clock and 8 o’clock. The asymmetric instrument panel is unique. Two small dials, the fuel gauge and the water temperature gauge, form the left semicircle, and only one speedometer dial is arranged in the right semicircle. The central control panel in the T-shaped area is designed as an inverted trapezoid, which is horizontally divided into four layers. The top layer is a set of square air outlets, the second layer is a storage compartment, and the lower two layers are the operation panels of the harmony sound system.

　　In terms of power, the first generation Honda CITY was originally equipped with a 1.3-liter inline four-cylinder Honda D13B, with a maximum of 95 horsepower. The transmission system was matched with 5-speed manual or 4-speed, with an acceleration time of 11.3 seconds from 0 to 100 km/h and a top speed of 171 km/h. Subsequently, a version equipped with Honda D15B 1.5-liter inline four-cylinder engine was added, with a maximum power of 103 HP. In 2001, Honda CITY launched a version equipped with a 1.5-liter VTEC engine with a maximum power of 115 HP. In the chassis part, the first generation of CITY originally adopted the independent front+McPherson independent rear suspension. However, Honda found that the competitors of the first generation of CITY were hardly equipped with independent rear suspension, so for cost reasons, CITY also cancelled the independent rear suspension.

● Second generation Honda CITY(2002 -2008)

　　In November 2002, the second generation Honda CITY made its debut at the Thailand International Automobile Expo. The new car no longer adopted the Honda Civic platform, but changed to the same Honda global platform as the first generation Fit, but its positioning has not changed, and it is still Honda’s entry-level sedan.

　　The second-generation Honda CITY also has only a sedan body structure, but the driving mode is not only the front drive, but also an additional version. In terms of body size, the length, width and height of the previous version are 4310mm×1690mm×1485mm, and the wheelbase is 2450mm；; In September, 2005, the second generation of CITY was redesigned in the mid-term, and the length of the car in the later version was increased, with the front part lengthened by 65mm and the rear part lengthened by 15 mm..

　　The second-generation CITY adopts the same MM design as the first-generation Fit, that is, Man Max (Maximizing Passenger Space) and Mechanism Mini (Minimizing Machine Occupancy), and its stylish appearance has many similarities with the first-generation Fit, especially the front contour is easy to connect the two cars. The interior design is exactly the same, and the overall layout of the center console of the two cars is exactly the same, with only minor differences in the details. The later version mainly redesigned the front and rear of the car to make the car look more dynamic.

　　In terms of power, the second-generation CITY was originally equipped with Honda L series 1.3-liter and 1.5-liter inline four-cylinder engines. i-I (Intelligent Double Sequential Ignition) technology was adopted, and each cylinder was equipped with two spark plugs. The ignition timing was adjusted according to the engine speed, load and other factors, and the intake vortex was used to realize rapid and sufficient lean combustion, thus improving the engine power and reducing the fuel consumption of the whole vehicle. Subsequently, a version equipped with a 1.5-liter VTEC engine was introduced, and the transmission system was matched with a 5-speed manual gearbox or gearbox. In the chassis part, the second-generation CITY is equipped with the same McPherson independent front suspension+torsion beam semi-independent rear suspension as the first-generation Fit, and adopts a unique fuel tank center structure.

　　The second generation Honda CITY is no longer just an exclusive model for the Southeast Asian market. The car has also been put into production in the Japanese Honda saitama narrow mountain factory and the Guangzhou Honda (renamed Guangqi Honda in 2009) Huangpu factory in China. Honda launched the second generation CITY in Japan in December 2002, but the name of the car changed to Fit Aria. Aria translated into aria is usually a lyrical and dramatic solo passage in drama. This name is mainly used to continue Honda’s tradition of naming cars with music. For example, Honda’s Prelude, Accord, Ballade, Quintet and Concerto also have car names related to music.

☆ The second generation Honda CITY is in China.

　　In the China market, the second generation Honda CITY was first launched in 2003, and the domestic version was originally named (Fit Saloon, which China car owners used to call the Fit). On September 16 of the same year, it was rolled off the assembly line in Guangzhou Honda (renamed Guangqi Honda in 2009) and listed in the whole country on September 28. The first to be put on the market is the Fit Saloon)1.3-liter 5-speed manual version, which costs 99,800 yuan. Subsequently, the sedan Fit introduced 1.3-liter CVT version, 1.5-liter 5-speed manual version and 1.5-liter CVT version with a price of 10.98-119,800 yuan.

　　The mid-term modified model was rolled off the assembly line in Guangzhou Honda on March 29th, 2006 (renamed Guangqi Honda in 2009) and listed on April 8th of the same year, with the price of 96,800-124,800 yuan. The new car no longer uses the name of the Fit sedan, but is renamed as Sidi, a transliteration of CITY, which stands for Creative (Creative Leading), Intelligent (Outstanding Wisdom), True (True Personality) and Youth (Young Vitality). In August 2008, Sidi launched a small modified model. The new Sidi has the only skylight developed by Honda for the China market in the world. The new car was launched in September of the same year, with a price of 938-124,800 yuan.

　　Xinhua News:According to the British "Guardian" website, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin gave the strongest hint so far on the evening of the 10th, saying that he was considering returning as president in 2012 and re-entering the Kremlin.

　　On May 11th, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin (former) waved to the welcoming crowd after arriving at Haneda Airport in Tokyo, Japan. Putin arrived in Tokyo on the same day and began an official visit to Japan. Xinhua News Agency reporter Ren Zhenglai photo

　　Putin said that it has not yet been determined whether he or his close ally Medvedev will run for the presidency after the expiration of the current four-year term of office.

　　In an interview with Japanese media, Putin said: "President Medvedev and I will decide what to do in the future according to the effectiveness of our work."

　　He also said: "My relationship with President Medvedev is very harmonious. We have our own duties and division of labor. Of course, at this level, problems often appear alternately. "

　　In recent months, some commentators have said that Medvedev has been trying to push Russia to a more liberal and less authoritarian path. But skeptics point out that the difference between the two leaders is only reflected in their style.

　　Putin said on the 10th that the current economic crisis hitting Russia will determine which of them will win in 2012. Putin said: "I have known Medvedev for a long time, and I know that he will decide his political future according to national interests."

　　The relationship between Medvedev and Putin is still confusing. They met in the office of the mayor of St. Petersburg in the early 1990s, and Putin appointed Medvedev as his successor in autumn 2007. (Editor: Tao Zhipeng)

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