Brief comment on air conditioning data in December of 18： the growth rate of domestic sales turned positive year-on-year, hitting a record high again in the whole year.
Industry online disclosure of air conditioning production and sales data in December of 18 years
Production and sales data in December, 18: The total output in that month was 11,570,000 units, up by 3.17% year-on-year, and the total sales volume was 10,693,700 units, up by 11.78% year-on-year, of which 6,633,000 units were sold domestically, up by 5.08% year-on-year, and 4,060,700 units were exported, up by 24.76% year-on-year, and the total At the level of listed companies, Gree fell by 4.95% (domestic sales fell by 11.37% and exports increased by 17.65%); Midea increased by 28.10% (domestic sales increased by 19.19% and exports increased by 50.00%); Haier fell by 15.03% (domestic sales fell by 15.52% and exports fell by 13.51%);It increased by 26.67% (domestic sales decreased by 5.56% and exports increased by 75.00%).
Cumulative production and sales data for the whole year of 18 years: the cumulative total output was 149,850,500 units, up 4.43% year-on-year, and the total sales volume was 150,690,900 units, up 6.34% year-on-year, of which 92,808,500 units were sold domestically, up 4.57% year-on-year, and 57,882,400 units were exported, up 9.32% year-on-year. At the level of listed companies, Gree increased by 7.33% (domestic sales increased by 3.39% and exports increased by 18.79%); The cumulative growth of Midea was 5.69% (domestic sales increased by 2.96% and exports increased by 9.35%); Haier’s cumulative growth was 13.13% (domestic sales increased by 7.47% and exports increased by 31.20%); Hisense’s household appliances increased by 5.65% (domestic sales increased by 0.04% and exports increased by 15.36%).
The growth rate of domestic sales turned positive year-on-year, and the export performance remained excellent.
In the month, the domestic sales of the industry achieved single-digit growth, which was the first positive growth in a single month since the second half of 18 years; Both the third-party retail monitoring data and the installation card data of leading enterprises show that the demand performance of air-conditioning terminals is still relatively dull in December. We judge that the main reason for the rebound in domestic sales in the industry is that on the one hand, the Spring Festival this year is earlier than last year, and the demand for stocking by channel dealers is released in advance. On the other hand, the raw material prices of copper and steel have declined recently. Under this background, it is reasonable for enterprises to increase production scheduling to lock in costs. In addition, it is expected that air-conditioning enterprises will sprint the annual target at the end of the year to drive sales. On the export side, the export growth rate of the industry remained at a high level in the month, mainly because the expected increase in subsequent tariffs led to the early release of some export orders. From the perspective of the whole year, the total domestic sales of the air-conditioning industry in 18 years exceeded 90 million units for the first time, hitting a record high on the basis of the high base in 17 years, and the performance was better than the market expectation at the beginning of 18 years; The export growth rate was slightly faster than domestic sales, driven by the bright performance in the fourth quarter.
The performance of manufacturers is divided, and the trend of share concentration remains the same.
The domestic sales performance of air-conditioning enterprises in the month was different, among which Midea increased by nearly 20% year-on-year, which is expected to mainly benefit from the fact that the company’s channel inventory under the "T+3" mode was significantly lower than the industry average, and the company’s terminal installation card maintained a single-digit growth in the fourth quarter, which also had good support for the delivery end; In addition, the sales volume of Oaks in the month increased by 122.22% year-on-year under the background of low base, and its performance was more eye-catching; However, Gree’s domestic shipments continued to decline in the month, and the relatively high channel inventory may have a certain impact. However, the company’s recently disclosed 18-year performance forecast shows that the company’s revenue still increased by more than 30% in the fourth quarter, and the actual shipment growth rate is expected to be significantly better than that of the third-party data statistics. Generally speaking, although the growth rate of domestic sales of leading air-conditioning enterprises has slowed down in the past 18 years, it still maintains a relatively steady growth, and the domestic sales of CR4 in the industry increased by 1.70pct to 80.01% year-on-year, among which the increase of Oaks share was the most obvious; Considering the historical experience of leading enterprises in the pressure-bearing stage of the industry boom to seize the market share of long-tailed enterprises and the relatively dull market expectation of air-conditioning domestic sales in 19 years, the market share of leading enterprises in the follow-up industry is expected to increase steadily and drive the domestic sales performance to exceed market expectations.
There is no need to worry too much about channel inventory, and domestic sales have been "low before and high after 19 years"
At present, the market is worried about the high level of air-conditioning channels or the suppression of domestic sales in subsequent industries, but we believe that although the overall channel inventory level has improved in 18 years, it is still within a reasonable range; According to the monitoring data of third-party retailers such as Aowei and Zhongyikang, and the statistical data of installation cards of leading manufacturers, the retail volume of omni-channel terminals of air conditioners has achieved a small single-digit growth year-on-year in 18 years, which basically matches the growth rate of domestic shipments in the whole year. Considering that the installation card base in 17 years should be slightly higher than the shipment end, it is estimated that the industry channel inventory will increase in 18 years, but the range is limited. Combined with the financial indicators of leading enterprises and channel research, the current pressure of channel dealers’ capital turnover is also significantly lower than the high point of channel inventory in the last round in 14-15. Considering the steady increase in rural areas and third-and fourth-tier cities, and the continuous release of the demand for the renewal of the first-and second-tier markets, the overall demand of the industry is still expected to maintain steady growth in 19 years, and if the follow-up subsidy policy is introduced as scheduled, the driving effect on the demand of the industry is also worth looking forward to. Driven by this, there is no need to worry too much about the domestic sales performance of air conditioners in 19 years, and the growth rate will be low before and high after being disturbed by the base.
The value of leading configuration is highlighted, maintaining the industry’s "optimistic" rating.
In the same month, driven by factors such as channel dealers stocking up in advance and air-conditioning enterprises sprinting for the whole year, the growth rate of domestic sales in the industry turned positive year-on-year. In 18 years, the total annual sales exceeded 90 million units, reaching a record high and exceeding the market expectations at the beginning of the year. In the past 19 years, based on the steady release of industry demand and the limited improvement of channel inventory, there is no need to worry too much about the domestic sales performance of air conditioners, and the growth rate is likely to be low before and then high. Considering that the industry boom is often a good opportunity for leading enterprises to seize market share, the profitability is expected to continue to improve under the background of superimposed healthy competition pattern and gradual correction of raw material prices, and the deterministic advantage of white electricity leading enterprises’ performance will continue to be highlighted; After the previous stock price correction, the current valuation of white power blue chip is still at a relatively low level. With the recent increase in foreign capital allocation and the expected continuous strengthening of subsidy policy, the restoration of its valuation center is worth looking forward to, and the value of stable allocation continues to be highlighted; To sum up, maintain the industry’s "optimistic" rating, continue to recommend that the performance growth rate is determined, the valuation safety margin is high, and it has a strong comparative advantage on a global scale.、andAt the same time, we are still optimistic about Hisense home appliances, a central air-conditioning concept stock that benefits from the high growth of the industry.
Risk warning: the industry demand is less than expected; The price of raw materials has risen sharply; Exchange rate fluctuations have increased.
Securities research report: Brief comment on air conditioning data in December of 18: the growth rate of domestic sales turned positive year-on-year, hitting a record high again in the whole year.
Release date: January 20, 2019
Research report rating: maintain the "optimistic" rating.
Report issuing agency:research institute
Participant information:
Xu Chun SACNo.: S0490513070006 E-mail: xuchun@cjsc.com.cn
Guan Quansen SACNo.: S0490516070002 Email: guanqs@cjsc.com.cn
Sun Shan SACNo.: S0490517020002 E-mail: sunshan@cjsc.com.cn
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