China Economics Review： Promoting the healthy development of the real estate industry in a virtuous circle.

　　The winter moon has arrived, and it is near the end of the year. The real estate market in 2021 was ups and downs.

　　In the first half of the year, real estate development loans, sales area and sales performance were very active, and house prices rose steadily in some cities. The turning point appeared in the middle of the year, and the financial regulation and control policies such as the "three-line and four-file" housing enterprise financing management rules and the loan concentration management of banking financial institutions gradually took effect, especially after the liquidity risk of individual large housing enterprises appeared as the "fuse", the market obviously cooled down in the second half of the year. With the sharp decline of the market, the virtuous circle of the real estate industry has been broken to some extent.

　　The Central Economic Work Conference held a few days ago proposed that the city should promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry, and made clear the focus of the current and future development of the real estate market. At present, the debt problem of some real estate enterprises is more prominent, and real estate sales, investment and land transfer all show signs of slowing down. In some cities, there is a wait-and-see mood of falling house prices and buying houses. Especially for areas with high industrial dependence, once the real estate market slows down excessively, it may trigger a more complicated risk transmission chain.

　　Real estate has a large scale, a long chain and a wide range of aspects, which accounts for a fairly high share in the national economy, fixed assets investment of the whole society, local fiscal revenue and total loans of financial institutions, and has an important systematic impact on economic and financial stability and risk prevention.

　　How to realize the virtuous circle and healthy development of real estate industry? Stable expectation is an important prerequisite. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to strengthen the expected guidance. Many people are not optimistic about the future development of the industry due to the debt crisis of individual housing enterprises and the downward pressure on the real estate market. In fact, although there are serious debt problems in individual real estate enterprises at present, it is still a case, because the enterprises themselves are not well managed, and their influence need not be exaggerated. The overall healthy development trend of China’s real estate market will not change, and the risks of individual enterprises will not affect the normal financing function of the medium and long-term real estate market.

　　At the same time, the reasonable housing needs of buyers are being met. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed that it will support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers. According to the data released by the central bank on December 13th, the balance of individual housing loans was 38.1 trillion yuan at the end of November, an increase of 401.3 billion yuan in that month, an increase of 53.2 billion yuan over that in October. The recent increase in the balance of personal housing loans is conducive to better meeting the mortgage demand of the first and improved housing.

　　On the basis of stable expectations, the supply and demand blocking point is expected to break through, and a virtuous circle of the real estate industry is expected. The cooling of the real estate market is easy to be transmitted to other links. When the transaction volume of second-hand houses decreases and fewer buyers buy new ones, the new house market may be neglected, while the sales of the new house market directly affect the payment of enterprises. Once the funds are insufficient, it will reduce the enthusiasm of enterprises to take land, and then the cooling will be transmitted to the land market. It can be seen that one link is stagnant and it is easy for the whole market to "turn". To achieve a virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry, efforts should be made to control the liquidity risk of housing enterprises and avoid the transmission of local risks to the whole system. At the same time, it is necessary to smooth all links in the chain of "financing, land acquisition, sales, loans and payment". The improvement of the financing of housing enterprises and the credit environment of buyers will help the real estate industry to further realize a virtuous circle.

　　To achieve a virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry, enterprises need to constantly explore new development models. The development model of high leverage, high debt and high turnover in the real estate industry in the past 20 years has been unsustainable; On the whole, China will gradually transition from incremental development of large-scale demolition and construction to stock transformation; From the perspective of housing supply, from the past, we paid more attention to buying and renting, and changed to renting and buying at the same time. All these decide that real estate enterprises should adapt to the changes and explore new development models.

　　In the process of solving the housing problem, housing leasing will play an increasingly important role. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed that we should adhere to both rent and purchase and accelerate the development of the long-term rental market. Specialized and large-scale housing leasing enterprises are an important carrier to improve professional services in the leasing market. Factors such as high cost and narrow profit space in leasing industry hinder the specialization and scale development of enterprises. Statistics show that the institutionalization rate of housing leasing in first-tier cities in China is less than 15%. Therefore, to speed up the development of the long-term rental market, we should speed up the cultivation of specialized and large-scale housing rental enterprises.

　　To realize that all people have a place to live, housing security cannot be absent. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to promote the construction of affordable housing. China’s housing security system has completed the top-level design, including public rental housing, affordable rental housing and shared property housing. Among them, affordable rental housing, which focuses on solving the outstanding housing problems in big cities and alleviating the housing difficulties of new citizens and young people, will become the top priority of affordable housing in the new development stage.

　　The central economic work conference once again stressed that "housing is not speculation", indicating that the bottom line cannot be broken. To promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry, we should take "keeping the word steady, striving for progress while maintaining stability" and "trying to smooth the national economic cycle" as the starting point, instead of having the mentality of stimulating and speculating on real estate. (This article Source: Economic Daily Author: Kang Shu)